Report says China’s food security guaranteed

China’s food security will be guaranteed during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021–2025), according to China’s Rural Development Report (2020) released recently by the Rural Development Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and China Social Sciences Press.

In the context of China, the concept of food includes grains, potatoes and beans. Among grains, the three main staples are wheat, rice and corn. China’s food production is dominated by grain production. In the past decade, grain output has accounted for more than 90% of total food output, while the three main staple grains of rice, wheat and corn have accounted for more than 98% of grains. As such, China’s food security will be guaranteed as long as the supply of rice, wheat and corn is stabilized.

Grain self-sufficiency rate and ration self-sufficiency rate are also considered to be key indicators for examining the ability to ensure food security. Using a variety of methods to calculate the self-sufficiency rates of the three major staple grains of rice, wheat and corn, the research team of the report concluded that China’s overall grain self-sufficiency rate has been higher than 95% in each year since 2005, meeting the requirement for basic grain self-sufficiency. In addition, the self-sufficiency rate of rations calculated by rice and wheat from 2015 to 2019 has been above 100%, which shows that China has had absolute ration safety in recent years.

The report predicts that under normal circumstances, China’s food output will be about 685 million tons in 2025, and grain output will be about 626 million tons. The self-sufficiency rate of grains will still be above the safety line of 95%, and the ratio of grain output to food output will remain above 90%. This shows that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China can maintain its goal of basic self-sufficiency in grains, and grain security will continue to provide a solid foundation for food security.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the advancement of industrialization and urbanization and the enhancement of urban and rural residents’ consumption levels, China’s food self-sufficiency rate has declined mainly due to the significant increase in soybean imports. The demand for soybeans in China is about 110 million tons per year, and 90% of soybeans need to be imported. In 2019, soybean imports amounted to 88.51 million tons, which was close to 70% of total food imports for the year. As such, the country’s food gap is mainly caused by the limited domestic soybean production capacity.

In fact, the rations consumed by Chinese residents are mainly grains such as rice and wheat. Imported soybeans are mainly used for squeezing oil and providing fodder, and the impact of the soybean gap on ration consumption is therefore very limited.

According to data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China’s net grain imports in 2019 were 14.68 million tons, accounting for about 2% of grain consumption. Grain imports are mainly used for consumption structure optimization and inventory adjustment.

A food gap is the difference between food supply and demand, or between production and consumption. In recent years, food shortage has always been a concern in China due to its large population, the shortage of arable land and water resources on which food production depends, and the prominent contradiction between people and land.

Since 2015, China’s food imports have remained above 100 million tons. With the growth of food consumption demand, this food gap will exist for a long time. To some extent, this food shortage is a gap between consumption structure adjustment and quality improvement, mainly caused by structural demand and adjustments in food varieties. It is not a shortage of staple foods, let alone a food crisis.

The food gap needs to be understood from two dimensions: bottom-line security and dynamic balance. From the perspective of bottom-line security, China’s annual food output has stabilized at more than 650 million tons for five consecutive years, and per capita food output in 2019 reached 474 kilograms. The food output this summer hit a record high again. With sufficient stock, China can fully cope with the predicted grain gap during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and grain supply will remain stable for a long time. Based on the current comprehensive food production capacity of more than 650 million tons per year in China, the international food security standard of 400 kilograms per capita can be achieved in the country even under the expected high population growth in the future. The bottom line of food security is guaranteed.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it is vital to ensure that the overall food production capacity is at least 600 million tons. Based on the grain forecasts for each year before 2025, with such factors as population base, urbanization and consumption structure taken into account, it is justified and achievable to maintain a grain self-sufficiency rate of more than 95% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

In China, 40 billion to 50 billion kilograms of food is wasted on catering every year, which is approximately equivalent to 6% to 7.5% of current food production. With food production and demand still in a tight balance in the medium and long term, it is imperative to establish a green and healthy consumption concept throughout society, while opposing and eliminating any form of food waste.