Photo: Zhu Gaolei/CSSN

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) recently released the Bluebook of China’s Economy: Analysis and Forecast of China’s Economic Situation (2021) at a seminar on the Chinese economy held in Beijing.

The seminar was co-organized by the Bureau of Scientific Research Management, the Institute of Industrial Economics, the Macroeconomic Research Center, and the Social Sciences Academic Press (China), all under CASS.

In his keynote speech, CASS Vice President Cai Fang pointed out the importance of paying attention to both GDP recovery and employment when evaluating China’s macroeconomic situation.

Since February 2020, the unemployment rate has trended towards showing an inverted V-shaped curve, indicating that a V-shaped recovery of the Chinese economy is underway. However, the recovery of tertiary industries, consumption, and incomes, all lag behind, as does the demand side’s recovery when compared with the supply side, Cai said.

Cai said that the balance and mutual benefits between supply and demand requires the accelerated building of the new development pattern which smooths the domestic circulation and lets the domestic and international circulation reinforce each other. The new development pattern is not only a long-term strategy for China’s economic development, but also a guideline for post-epidemic economic recovery, he added.

Although some weak links inhibit the general recovery, the Chinese economy has not completely bottomed out, Cai noted, urging priorities to be given to stabilizing employment and guaranteeing people’s livelihoods in macroeconomic policies.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the world economy has suffered a historic recession, but China has achieved success in epidemic prevention and control and recovered in socioeconomic development. According to the blue book, the global economy is expected to recover universally in 2021, but the implications of the pandemic are far-reaching and the external environment remains complicated and changeable.

The bluebook forecasts that the Chinese economy will grow 2.2% in 2020 if only a small number of scattered COVID-19 cases are confirmed and effectively controlled in Winter 2020 and Spring 2021.

Given the low base number for growth in 2020, China’s economy is predicted to grow 7.8% in 2021, roughly based on the cross-cycle design and regulation of macroeconomic control. However, the prediction might be subject to adjustment due to unexpected changes related to the COVID-19 epidemic in 2021, according to the bluebook.

Introduction to the bluebook

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the world economy has suffered a historic recession, but China has achieved success in epidemic prevention and control, and its socioeconomic development has recovered. The bluebook analyzes China’s macroeconomic situation and provides policy suggestions. It covers fiscal and taxation analysis; monetary policy and the financial market; the industrial economy and high-quality development; investment, consumption, and foreign trade; employment and income distribution. The bluebook forecasts the Chinese economy will grow 2.2% in 2020 and about 7.8% in 2021, but the prediction may be subject to adjustment due to unexpected changes in the COVID-19 epidemic.